Diegueno Middle School – Surf and Weather Update

How good has the last 6 months been?
Quite an epic week of surf- if you timed it right. We had solid surf, downpours, clean conditions, windy conditions, small surf, and everything in-between. If you weren’t constantly checking it (or had dumb luck), then you missed it. For those of you that did time it right, congrats. Along with the past month or so of good surf, we also had record 80 degree bathtub water temps this past summer; been a good 6 months if I don’t mind me saying. Tonight a potent storm is barreling through Central California and as it does, surf is marching down the coast. Buoys up north were in the 20-25′ range earlier today and we should see 10’+ surf down here early on Friday and 12-15’+ surf in SD. That swell will drop through the day tomorrow. And as the storm moves through tonight, Friday should see sun and scattered clouds but NW winds early. High pressure then sets up behind the storm this weekend and we should have head high sets for Saturday and chest high sets Sunday- with clean conditions. Water temps are a chilly 57 degrees and if you dare get in the filthy water, tides this weekend (and early next week) are some of the most extreme of the year. This weekend is around 6.5′ at sunrise and down to -1.5′ late afternoon (and back to 1′ at sunset). On Monday it’s almost 7′ at sunrise and down to -2′ late afternoon. That’s an astonishing 9′ tide swing! That means the tide will be dropping about 1.5′ an hour. For a more detailed THE Surf Report, check out http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/.
After the quick drop in swell over the weekend, we get reversal and a quick rise in the swell on Monday from yet another storm passing by to the N. No rain it looks like for us, but 8′ sets instead. That’s a fair compromise I think. It may be blustery though from the NW so keep on top of the conditions. After that, high pressure sets up shop and pushes storms to our N so we’ll have smaller surf for the foreseeable future. Models show a chest high+ NW next Thursday and a slightly better head high+ NW towards the 28th. Also, forecast charts show some late (or early) season storm activity off Antarctica this weekend which may give the OC chest high SW swell towards the 28th too. All in all some smaller surf after Monday and cleaner conditions. 

This past week has been impressive in the way of rainfall (check the details below). We should be done for awhile as high pressure starts to take hold tomorrow and a weak storm moves by to our N on Monday. We’ll have sunny skies this weekend, a couple clouds and a breeze on Monday, then a few days of early morning offshores and sun by mid-week. Next weekend looks to be sunny and mild; like a typical Southern California winter. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at http://twitter.com/NorthCountySurf.
Saturday/Tuesday/Thursday (and maybe the 28th) with manageable swell and winds. 
On last week’s THE Surf Report, I predicted we’d get 3″ of rain at the coast and 12-24″ of snow at the So-Cal resorts. How did we end up doing? Pretty spot on:

•   Rain:
◦   Ontario 3.66"
◦   Newport 2.75"
◦   Temecula 2.01"
◦   Escondido 1.75"
◦   Palm Springs 1.00"
◦   Oceanside 1.87"
◦   San Diego 0.70"
•   Snow:
◦   Big Bear 12.00"
◦   Wrightwood 7.00"
◦   Mt. Laguna 2.00"

And the extremes were:

• Mountain High 14.00″ of snow
• Lytle Creek (16 miles NW of San Bernardino, elev. 2790) a whopping 10.30″ of rain
• Glen Helen Regional Park (for all you MX people out there) 9.53″ of rain
• Horsethief Canyon in the Santa Ana Mountains 8.19″ of rain
• Birch Hill in the San Diego County mountains 6.18″ of rain
• Huntington Beach 5.00″ of rain

So NOW where do we stand for rain this season? Here goes:
• Newport Beach 9.86″ (163% of normal) and getting close to the seasonal average of 13.30″
• Oceanside 6.04″ (107% of normal) and almost 1/2 way to the seasonal average of 13.66″
• San Diego 6.43″ (152% of normal) and over 1/2 way to the seasonal average of 10.34″
Unless we get hit by an asteroid (that’s not funny), I’m thinking we’ll make at least our seasonal averages this year with 3 more good months of rain to go…

Surfing Baja is a lot like surfing California back in the 1800’s. This is what Swami’s must have looked like when former president John Adams surfed (a little known historical fact). 
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Mover & Shaker
Having a Hard Time Finding a Mega Yacht Within My Budget
Wore an Astronaut Suit in the Dirty Surf This Week So I Wouldn’t Get Sick 

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